Sunday, May 8, 2011

From the grapevine: Predictions


There was apparently a very high level meeting within the PAP top echelons between midnight and 2.30 am on the morning of May 6 to make the final assessment. I would have loved to be the fly on the wall at such a meeting. Based on my sources, here's the PAP assessment:
  1. PAP will win this GE with a 60% +/-3% overall share. Their original (optimistic) assessment was that they would win this with a 63%+/- 3%share. The worst case scenario for PAP is actually 56% +/- 3% vote share.
  2. Aljunied is a lost case for PAP, though apparently the grassroots believe that during the last 3 days, GY's sympathy appeal has endeared him to the younger generation and he may scrape through. The older generation still likes GY. It is the younger generation which will be the swing factor for WP.
  3. Hougang will be retained by WP with a much slender margin.
  4. The TPY-Bishan will go down the wire. The consensus is that PAP will win this GRC with a 53% +/- 3% margin.

Apparently all the "sorry speeches" and the "tears" had some effect. Many of the voters who were fence sitters, seem to have bought into the PAP humility and a lot of them will vote for the PAP. If it was not for the tears and the sorry speeches, PAP would have lost one more GRC (TPY-Bishan) and one SMC at least. The sorry speeches and tears has a 1.5-3.5% swing appeal.

A lot of Ministers are actually chewing their nails (VB, WKS) though MBT is pretty confident of getting more than a 60% share. MBT is pretty smug.

So, in all PAP expects to lose just 1 GRC and 1 SMC. Anything more than that, would mean PAP will have to redraw their prediction model. Their prediction model worked well in 2006 and hence there is only some marginal changes done to the model.

Based on data set briefly that was used for the prediction model as of 3rd May midnight here's the qualitative assessment:

PAP has lost the mind share of the younger generation (21-35 yrs). The overall mind share loss is 62.5% ( i.e 62.5% do not believe /subscribe to the PAP's views / theories) as against 56% in the last GE. That's a big swing. It is unfortunate that the Opposition did not do a great job in connecting with this generation.

SDP minus CSJ appeal has gone up marginally. SDP wherever it has contested may get a higher vote share than with SDP+CSJ in the last GE. It may scare VB, but VB will go back to Parliament.

NSP is a non starter. Earlier it was believed that Tampines may be a risk, but last 3 days seems to indicate that PAP will sail through Tampines comfortably.

WP is gaining strength across all age/income groups. It's best supporters are the 21-35 age group (60%) as against the strength that it has (51.5%) in 2006. Clearly Sylvia and LTK has appealed to this target group.

SPP seems to become history. Even in PP, his wife gets a lot of sympathy, but it is unlikely to convert that into votes.

Random thoughts:

There is so much secrecy and conspiracy theories floating around and so much mistrust all over, that the cadres seem to have lost their sense of purpose in many constituencies. So, PAP will make all effort to get the cadres aligned.

The civil service votes (which was always for the PAP) is slowly waking up to the possibility of voting for the Opposition. So, next GE there will be a special "package" for civil service.

There was only one decision maker and in all likelihood one of the 2 king makers who has chosen to operate deftly behind the scenes -- TCH. Watch out!


All the observations/conclusions are drawn after factoring in the conversations, hidden observations and of course some "data"

Now, draw your own inferences

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