Thursday, May 19, 2011

Young voters (aged 21.0 to 25.9) were responsible for 4.5% vote swing in 2011 Elections

Following the line of analysis (here) where I concluded that the young (aged 21.0 to 25.9, i.e. first-time of-age) internet-savvy voters will provide a 4.8% vote swing to the Alternative Parties in the 2016 Elections, I now analyze the extent to which the first-time of-age (FTOA) voters influenced the 2011 Elections.

I break the 2011 electorate up into three groups: first-time of-age (FTOA,  9.55% of electorate), new citizens (NC, 2.79%) and the older voters (OV, 87.66%). [For simplicity, I assume that no voter belongs to both FTOA and NC.]

The overall vote swing of the entire electorate to the Alternatives was 6.46% (=66.60%-60.14%).

Assuming that the internet-savvy FTOA are 90% pro-Alternatives (here), and NC are 90% pro-PAP (here), then OV are 64.65% pro-PAP (in order for the overall electorate to be 60.14% pro-PAP).

Thus, the vote swing among OV towards the Alternatives is a mere 1.95% (=66.60%-64.65%), compared with the overall vote swing of 6.46% towards the Alternatives.

FTOA are in fact responsible for 4.51% (=6.46%-1.95%) of the 6.46% vote swing.

This conclusion highlights the great importance of the internet and the youth in the recent election. To achieve electoral victory, Alternative Parties must win the battle for the  hearts and minds of our youth.

My calculations

There are 2,350,873 voters in 2011 (here).

The 2010 census (here) shows 224539 citizens aged 20.0-24.9 . I take this as an estimate of the number of FTOA. Hence, FTOA is 9.55% (=224539/23508730) of the electorate.

Next, I estimate the number of NC.

There are 2,350,873  voters in 2011, and 3,230,700 citizens in the 2010 census (here).

Dividing the first number by the second, 72.77% of citizens are voters.

According to figures from the Home Affairs Ministry, nearly 90,000 foreigners became new citizens between 2006 and 2010.

The number of new citizen voters (NC) is therefore 90000x 72.77%=65493 ~ 65500.

NC comprises 2.79% (=65500/2350873)  of the 2011 electorate.

All voters other than FTOA and NC are grouped as OV which is therefore 87.66% of the electorate.

Assuming that FTOA are 90% pro-Alternatives, and NC are 90% pro-PAP, then (in order for the overall electorate to be 60.14% pro-PAP) OV must be 64.65% pro-PAP.

This statement can be verified as follows:

9.55x0.1  + 2.79x0.9 + 87.66x0.6465 = 100x0.6014

  [FTOA: 9.55% of electorate, 10% pro-PAP;

    NC: 2.79% of electorate, 90% pro-PAP; etc]

1 comment:

Aurvandil said...

Read your 2 blog postings on the impact of demographic change on GE 2016. Nice to meet someone with simiar ideas. I have posted up my analysis on how demographic change is frightening the PAP. Drop by for a read.